Demographic history of Kosovo

Contents

1 Ottoman Rule 1.1 15th century 1.2 17th-18th century 1.3 19th century 1.4 20th century 2 Serbia and Yugoslavia 2.1 Balkan Wars and World War I-World War II 2.2 World War II-1968 2.3 1968-1989: Autonomy 2.4 1989-1999: Centralized Yugoslav Control 2.5 1999-present: UN administration 3 References

Ottoman Rule

15th century

1455: Turkish cadastral tax census (defter)⁹ of the Brankovic dynasty lands (covering 80% of present-day Kosovo and Metohija) recorded 480 villages, 13,693 adult males, 12,985 dwellings, 14,087 household heads (480 widows and 13,607 adult males). By ethnicity:

• 12,985 Serbian dwellings present in all 480 villages and towns
• 75 Vlach dwellings in 34 villages
• 46 Albanian dwellings in 23 villages
• 17 Bulgarian dwellings in 10 villages
• 5 Greek dwellings in Lauša, Vučitrn
• 1 Jewish dwelling in Vučitrn
• 1 Croat dwelling

17th-18th century

The Great Turkish War of 1683-1699 between the Ottomans and the Habsburgs led to the flight of a substantial part of Kosovo's Serbian population to Austrian held Vojvodina and the Military Frontier. Following this an influx of Muslim Albanian¹⁹ from the highlands (Malesi) occurred, mostly into Metohija. The process continued in 18th century¹⁹.

19th century

19th century data about the population of Kosovo tend to be rather conflicting, giving sometimes numerical superiority to the Serbs and sometimes to the Albanians. Many historians regard Ottoman statistics as being unreliable, as the empire counted its citizens by religion rather than nationality, using birth records rather than surveys of individuals.

A study in 1838 by an Austrian physician, dr. Joseph Müller found Metohija to be mostly Slavic (Serbian) in character. ¹⁰ Müller gives data for the three counties (Bezirke) of Prizren, Pec and Djakovica which roughly covered Metohija, the portion adjacent to Albania and most affected by Albanian settlers. Out of 195,000 inhabitants in Metohija, Müller found:

• 73,572 Orthodox Serbs 38%
• 5,120 Catholic Albanians 3%
• 2,308 other non-Muslims (Vlachs etc.)
• 114,000 Muslims (58%), of which:
  • c. 38,000 are Serbs (19%)
  • c. 76,000 are Albanians (39%)

Müller's observations on towns:

• Peć: 11.050 Serbs, 500 Albanians
• Prizren: 16,800 Serbs, 6150 Albanians
• Đakovica: majority of Albanians, surrounding villages Serbian

Map published by French ethnographer G. Lejean¹² in 1861 shows that Albanians lived on around 57% of the territory of today's province while a similar map, published by British travellers G. M. Mackenzie and A. P. Irby^12,13 in 1867 shows slightly less; these maps don't show which population was larger overall.

A study done in 1871 by Austrian colonel Peter Kukulj for the internal use of the Austro-Hungarian army showed that the mutesarifluk of Prizren (corresponding largely to present-day Kosovo and Metohija) had some 500,000 inhabitants, of which:

• 318.000 Serbs (64%),
• 161.000 Albanians (32%),
• 10.000 Roma (Gypsies) and Circassians,
• 2.000 Turks

Miloš S. Milojević travelled the region in 1871-1877 and left accounts which testify that Serbs were majority population, and were predominant in all cities, while Albanians were minority and lived mostly in villages²². According to his data, Albanians were majority population in southern Drenica (Muslim Albanians), and in region around Djakovica (Catholic Albanians), while the city was majorly Serbian. He also recorded several settlements of Turks, Roma and Circassians.

It is estimated that some 400,000¹⁸ Serbs were cleansed out of the Vilayet of Kosovo between 1876 and 1912, especially during the Greek-Turkish war of 1897.

Maps published by German historian Kiepert¹² in 1876, J. Hahn¹² and Austrian consul K. Sax¹², show that Albanians live on most of the territory of today's province, however they don't show which population is larger. According to these, the regions of Kosovska Mitrovica and Kosovo Polje were settled mostly by Serbs, whereas most of the terrirory of western and eastern parts of today's province was settled by Muslim Albanians.

20th century

British journalist H. Brailsford²⁰ in his book Macedonia, Its Races and Their Future (1905) estimated that two-thirds of the population of Kosovo was Albanian and one-third Serbian. The most populous western districts of Djakovica and Pec were said to have between 20,000 and 25,000 Albanian households, as against some 5,000 Serbian ones. Map of Alfred Stead, published in 1909, shows that similar numbers of Serbs and Albanians were living in the territory.

German scholar Gustav Weigand gave the following statistical data about the population of Kosovo in Ethnography of Macedonia (1924, written 1919), based on the pre-war situation in Kosovo in 1912:

• Pristina District: 67% Albanians, 30% Serbs
• Prizren District: 63% Albanians, 36% Serbs
• Vucitrn District: 90% Albanians, 10% Serbs
• Ferizovic (Urosevac) District: 70% Albanians, 30% Serbs
• Gilani (Gnjilane) District: 75% Albanians, 23% Serbs
• Mitrovica District: 40% Albanians, 60% Serbs

Metohija with the town of Djakovica is furthermore defined as almost exclusively Albanian by Weigand.

Serbia and Yugoslavia

Balkan Wars and World War I-World War II

Retaking of Kosovo by Serbia in 1912 resulting in suppression of the local Albanian population and ethnic cleansning of some regions¹⁵.

• 1921 439,010 total inhabitants⁶

A map of the Serbian census of 1921[1] (http://www.aeronautics.ru/archive/macedonia/maps/macmap_055.jpg) shows that most of the terrirory was settled by Albanians, with Serbian enclaves around Prizren, Sredska Zupa and Pristina. Religion on the largest part of the territory was Islam with Eastern Orthodox enclaves around Kosovska Mitrovica, Pristina and Gnjilane²¹.

• 1931 552,064 total inhabitants⁶

World War II-1968

Most of the teritorry of today's province is occupied by Italian-occupied Greater Albania, massacres of some 10,000 Serbs, ethnic cleansing of about 100,000¹ and settling of 70,000 of Albanians from Albania.

• 1948: 727,820 total inhabitants^5,6; 498,242 Albanians or 68.46%⁵
• 1953: 524,559 Albanians or 65%⁵
• 1961: 646,604 Albanians or 67.1%^1,5

1968-1989: Autonomy

After the province gained autonomy, local provincial Statistical office given authority over census whereas the rest of the country's census was under the tutelage of the Federal Statistical Commission. Allegations of census rigging (for the 1971 and 1981) by Turk, Muslim and Roma minorities who claim forceful Albanization. Serb claims Albanians drastically overincreased their own numbers. Nothing could be substantiated though because the Kosovo Statistical offices were under exclusive Albanian control which was against the national norm at the time which dicated that census takers had to be of different nationalities (i.e. one Albanian and one Serb not both Albanian as was the case in the two following censa).

1971: 1,243,693 total inhabitants^5,6

• 916,168 Albanians or 73.7%^1,5
• 259,816 Serbs/Montengrins or 20.9%^{5; same below}
• 26,000 Muslims or 2.1%
• 14,593 Roma or 1.2%
• 12,244 Turks or 1.0%
• 8,000 Croats or 0.7%

Albanians take ever-increasing control of Autonomous province with the introduction of the 1974 Constitution of SFRY.

• 1981:

1,584,440 total inhabitants

• 1,226,736 Albanians 77.42%
• 236,525 Serbs/Montenegrins 14.93% ^1,5,6

1989-1999: Centralized Yugoslav Control

Yugoslav Central Government reasserts control over Kosovo in 1989.

Official Yugoslav statistical results, almost all Albanians and some Roma, Muslims boyott the census following a call by Ibrahim Rugova to boycott Serbian institutions. 1991 359,346 Total population

• 214,555 Orthodox Serbs (194,190 Serbians and 20,365 Montenegrins)
• 9,091 Albanians (most boycotted)
• 57,758 (Slavic) Muslims
• 44,307 Roma
• 10,445 Turks
• 8,062 Croats (Janjevci, Letnicani)
• 3,457 Yugoslavs

Official Yugoslav statistical corrections and projections, with the help of previous census results (1948-1981):

1,956,196 Total population⁶ (corrected from 359,346)

• 214,555 Orthodox Serbs (194,190 Serbians and 20,365 Montenegrins)
• 1,596,072 or 81,6 % Albanians (corrected from 9,091)
• 66,189 (Slavic) Muslims (corrected from 57,758)
• 45,745 Roma (corrected from 44,307)
• 10,445 Turks
• 8,062 Croats (Janjevci, Letnicani)
• 3,457 Yugoslavs

The corrections should not taken to be fully accurate. The number of Albanians is sometimes regarded as being an underestimate. On the other hand, it is sometimes regarded as an overestimate, being derived from earlier censa which are believed to be overestimates. The Statistical Office of Kosovo states that the quality of the 1991 census is "questionable." [2] (http://www.sok-kosovo.org/pdf/population/Kosovo_population.pdf).

1999-present: UN administration

During the Kosovo War in 1999, over 700,000 ethnic Albanians ¹⁴ and around 100,000 ethnic Serbs ¹⁶ were forced out of the province to neighbouring Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Serbia. After the United Nations took over administration of Kosovo following the war, the vast majority of the Albanian refugees returned.

Many non-Albanians - chiefly Serbs and Roma - fled or were expelled, mostly to the rest of Serbia at the end of the war, with further refugee outflows occurring as the result of sporadic ethnic violence. The number of registered refugees is around 250,000^7,11,17. The non-Albanian population in Kosovo is now about half of its pre-war total. The largest concentration of Serbs in the province is in the north, but many remain in Kosovo Serb enclaves surrounded by Albanian-populated areas.

Various, mostly Serbian, sources claim that a large number of Albanians (usually stated as being around 200,000) have moved into Kosovo since 1999, due to the complete liberalization of the Kosovo-Albania border. The veracity of this claim is unclear; the Statistical Office of Kosovo states that "there are at present no reliable statistics on migration in Kosovo."

2000 Living Standard Measurement Survey (Statistical Office of Kosovo). Total population estimated at 1 900 000 est. ⁴

• 88% Albanians (1,733,600)
• 7% Serbs (137,900)
• 3% Muslim Slavs (59,100)
• 2% Roma (39,400)
• 1% Turks (19,700)

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) estimates the population at 2.0 to 2.2 million people, extrapolating from voter registration data recorded by the UNMIK Department of Local Administration in 2000. [3] (http://www.sok-kosovo.org/pdf/population/Basic%20Demographic%20Data%20for%20Kosovo.pdf)

Some estimates by Albanian demographers estimate a population of 2.4 million Albanians living in Kosovo today. This is regarded by most independent observers as an overestimate as it would imply a total population of some 2.5-2.6 million people in Kosovo, much higher than other estimates.

References

¹ Annexe I (http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm199900/cmselect/cmfaff/28/28ap42.htm), by the Serbian Information Centre-London to a report of the Select Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.

² The International Criminal Tribunal For The Former Yugoslavia (http://www.un.org/icty/indictment/english/mil-ai010629e.htm)

³ Kosovo

⁴ Living Standard Measurement Survey 2000, Statistical Office of Kosovo - see also Kosovo and its Population (http://www.sok-kosovo.org/pdf/population/Kosovo_population.pdf)

⁵ Official Yugoslav censa results 1948-1981

⁶ Center for Contemporary Journalism (http://www.why.co.yu/why/facts.htm)

⁷ Coordination Centre of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Republic of Serbia for Kosovo and Metohija (http://web.archive.org/web/20040203102745/http://www.serbia.sr.gov.yu/coordination_centre/index.html)

⁸ Das Fürstenthum Serbien und Türkisch-Serbien, eine militärisch-geographische Skizze von Peter Kukolj, Major im k.k.Generalstabe, Wien 1871

⁹ The original Turkish-language copy of the census is stored in Istanbul's archives. However, in 1972 the Sarajevo Institute of Middle Eastern Studies translated the census and published an analysis of it Kovačević Mr. Ešref, Handžić A., Hadžibegović H. Oblast Brankovića - Opširni katastarski popis iz 1455., Orijentalni institut, Sarajevo 1972. Subsequently others have covered the subject as well suh as Vukanović Tatomir, Srbi na Kosovu, Vranje, 1986.

¹⁰ Dr. Joseph Müller, Albanien, Rumelien und die Österreichisch-montenegrinische Gränze, Prag, 1844

¹¹UNHCR: 2002 Annual Statistical Report: Serbia and Montenegro, pg. 9

¹²Wilkinson, H.R. (1951). Maps and Politics; a review of the ethnographic cartography of Macedonia, Liverpool University Press.

¹⁴BBC: [4] (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/336728.stm)

¹⁵ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (1914). Report of the International Commission To Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars. Washington: The Carnegie Endowment. (http://vmro.150m.com/en/carnegie/)

¹⁶OSCE: "Kosovo/Kosova As Seen As Told" (http://www.osce.org/kosovo/documents/reports/hr/part1/)

¹⁷USCR: Country report: Yugoslavia (http://www.refugees.org/world/countryrpt/europe/yugoslavia.htm)

¹⁸ISBN 86-17-09287-4: Коста Николић, Никола Жутић, Момчило Павловић, Зорица Шпадијер: Историја за трећи разред гимназије природно-математичког смера и четврти разред гимназије општег и друштвено-језичког смера, Belgrade, 2002, pg. 63

¹⁹Gustav Weigand, Ethnographie von Makedonien, Leipzig, 1924; Густав Вайганд, Етнография на Македония (http://www.kroraina.com/knigi/gw/gw_index.html) (Bulgarian translation)

²⁰H. N. Brailsford, Macedonia, Its Races and Their Future, London, 1906

²¹Zec, Stevan, "Maps of our dividings political atlas of Yugoslav countries in XX century", Beograd : Beogradsko mašinsko-grafičko preduzeće, 1991.

²²ISBN 86-80029-29-7: Mirčeta Vemić: Ethnic Map of a Part of Ancient Serbia: According to the travel-record of Miloš S. Milojević 1871-1877, Belgrade, 2005