Talk:Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale
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What is the "background hazard" exactly? Jheijmans
Excuse my probable innumeracy, but how is a 1 in 63 event 950% more likely than a 1 in 16000 event? 100 * ((1/63)/(1/16000)) - 100 = 25296 -- ~ 25000%,more likely, no? 950% is about right for 1.02 -- 10^1.02 =~ 10.5. I suspect the background risk is actually higher than 1/16000. Mike Linksvayer 05:44, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
I think 16000 probably came from the energy of the 2004MN4. The annual background risk of a collision with that energy is 0.03 * 1600^-0.8 which would be 0.001%. This number is then multiplied by the number of years till possible impact, or ~25 in this case, so 0.025% background risk. 10 times that is only 0.25%, so I must be off by a factor of 10 somewhere, but I can't see it. In any case, I suspect the background risk for a similar event over the next ~25 years is around 1 in 500, not 1 in 16000. (the 1/63 risk for 2004MN4 seems to have been updated to 1/45). Mike Linksvayer 06:16, 26 Dec 2004 (UTC)
I do believe that the Palermo Scale has gone up to 1.10 for 2004 MN4 has it not?