New Hampshire primary
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The New Hampshire primary to the U.S. presidential election is the first U.S. presidential primary in the United States. For more than 50 years it has been highly influential in both predictions and decisions about who will be the presidential nominee of the two major U.S. political parties.
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Significance
Since 1977, New Hampshire law has stated that its primary is to be the first in the nation. As a result, the state has had to move its primary, originally in March, earlier in the year to remain the first. For example, the election was held on February 20 in 1996, then February 1 in 2000, and January 27 in 2004 to compete with earlier and earlier primaries in other states.
Before the less-binding Iowa caucus first received national attention in the 1970s, the New Hampshire primary was the first binding indication of which presidential candidate would receive his political party's nomination. In defense of their primary, voters of New Hampshire have tended to downplay the importance of the Iowa caucus. "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents," said then-Gov. John H. Sununu in 1988.
Since then, the primary has been considered an early measurement of the national attitude toward the candidates for nomination. Unlike a caucus, the primary measures the number of votes each candidate received directly, rather than through precinct delegates. The fact that the primary is based on the popular vote means that it gives less well known candidates a chance to pull ahead. Unlike most other states, New Hampshire permits independents, not just party members, to vote in a party's primary.
New Hampshire's status as the first-in-the-nation is somewhat controversial because some consider it not to be representative of the nation as a whole. It is predominantly white (96% versus 75% nationally in 2000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau), and largely rural and agricultural. Politically however, the state does offer a wide sampling of different types of voters. Although it is a New England state, it is not as liberal as some of its neighbors, (e.g. Massachusetts). For example, according to one exit poll, of those who participated in the 2004 Democratic Primary, 4 in 10 voters were independents, and just over 50% said they considered themselves "liberal." Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered Democrats and 36.7% are Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared" independents. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.
Recently, media expectations for the New Hampshire primary have come to be almost as important as the results themselves; meeting or beating expectations can provide a candidate with national attention, often leading to an infusion of donations to a campaign that has spent most of its reserves. For example, in 1992, Bill Clinton, although he did not win, did surprisingly well, with his team dubbing him the "Comeback Kid"; the extra media attention helped drive him to victory in later primaries.
History
New Hampshire has held a presidential primary since 1916, but it did not begin to assume its current importance until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated his broad voter appeal by defeating Robert A. Taft, "Mr. Republican," who had been favored for the nomination, and Estes Kefauver defeated incumbent President Harry S. Truman, leading him to abandon his campaign for a second term.
The other President to be forced from running for re-election by New Hampshire voters was Lyndon Johnson, who managed only a 49-42 percent victory over Eugene McCarthy in 1968, and consequently withdrew from the race. It used to be the common wisdom that no-one who lost in New Hampshire could hope to be elected President, but Bill Clinton overturned this belief in 1992, and George W. Bush did so again in 2000. Moreover, the winner in New Hampshire has not always gone to win his party's nomination, as demonstrated by John McCain in 2000 and Pat Buchanan in 1996.
Winners and runners-up
Notes: Winner is listed first. Candidates in bold went on to win their party's nomination.
Democrats
- 2004: John F. Kerry defeated Howard B. Dean III
- 2000: Albert A. Gore Jr. defeated William W. Bradley
- 1996: William J. Clinton (no serious opposition)
- 1992: Paul E. Tsongas defeated William J. Clinton
- 1988: Michael S. Dukakis defeated Richard A. "Dick" Gephardt
- 1984: Gary W. Hart defeated Walter F. "Fritz" Mondale
- 1980: James E. Carter Jr. defeated Edward M. Kennedy
- 1976: James E. Carter Jr. defeated Morris K. Udall
- 1972: Edmund S. Muskie defeated George S. McGovern
- 1968: Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Eugene J. "Gene" McCarthy
- 1964: Lyndon B. Johnson (no serious opposition)
- 1960: John F. Kennedy (no serious opposition)
- 1956: C. Estes Kefauver defeated Adlai E. Stevenson II
- 1952: C. Estes Kefauver defeated Harry S. Truman
- 1948: Unpledged delegates
- 1944: Unpledged delegates
- 1940: Unpledged delegates
- 1936: Unpledged delegates
- 1932: Unpledged delegates
- 1928: Unpledged delegates
- 1924: Unpledged delegates
- 1920: Unpledged delegates
- 1916: T. Woodrow Wilson (unopposed)
Republicans
- 2004: George W. Bush (no serious opposition)
- 2000: John McCain defeated George W. Bush
- 1996: Pat Buchanan defeated Bob Dole
- 1992: George H. W. Bush defeated Pat Buchanan
- 1988: George H. W. Bush defeated Bob Dole
- 1984: Ronald Reagan (no serious opposition)
- 1980: Ronald Reagan defeated George H. W. Bush
- 1976: Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan
- 1972: Richard Nixon defeated Paul Norton McCloskey, Jr.
- 1968: Richard Nixon defeated Nelson Rockefeller
- 1964: Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. defeated Barry Goldwater
- 1960: Richard Nixon (no serious opposition)
- 1956: Dwight Eisenhower (no serious opposition)
- 1952: Dwight Eisenhower defeated Robert A. Taft
- 1948: Unpledged delegates
- 1944: Unpledged delegates
- 1940: Unpledged delegates
- 1936: Unpledged delegates
- 1932: Unpledged delegates
- 1928: Unpledged delegates
- 1924: Calvin Coolidge (unopposed)
- 1920: Leonard Wood defeated Hiram Johnson
- 1916: Unpledged delegates
2004 Democratic Results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Kerry | 84,377 | 38.4 | 13 |
| Howard Dean | 57,761 | 26.3 | 9 |
| Wesley Clark | 27,314 | 12.4 | 0 |
| John Edwards | 26,487 | 12.1 | 0 |
| Joseph Lieberman | 18,911 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Dennis Kucinich | 3,114 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Richard Gephardt | 419 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Al Sharpton | 347 | 0.2 | 0 |
| George W. Bush | 257 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Other | 1,000 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Total | 219,787 | 100 | 22 (of 27) |
Sources: Union-Leader (Manchester, NH), CNN, New Hampshire Department of State (http://www.state.nh.us/sos/presprim%202004/dpressum.htm)
2004 Republican Results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush | 53,962 | 79.55 | 29 | |
| All Others | 13,907 | 20.45 | ||
| John Kerry | 3,009 | 4.44 | ||
| Howard Dean | 1,888 | 2.78 | ||
| Wesley Clark | 1,467 | 2.16 | ||
| Joseph Lieberman | 941 | 1.39 | ||
| John Edwards | 916 | 1.35 | ||
| Richard Boza | 841 | 1.24 | ||
| John Buchanan | 836 | 1.23 | ||
| John Rigazio | 803 | 1.18 | ||
| Robert Haines | 579 | 0.85 | ||
| Michael Callis | 388 | 0.57 | ||
| Blake Ashby | 264 | 0.39 | ||
| Millie Howard | 239 | 0.35 | ||
| Tom Laughlin | 154 | 0.23 | ||
| Bill Wyatt | 153 | 0.23 | ||
| Scatter | 1393 | 2.05 | ||
| Total | 67,833 | 100 | 29 | |
Sources: Concord Monitor, New Hampshire Department of State (http://www.state.nh.us/sos/presprim%202004/rpressum.htm), [1] (http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2004_results/), [2] (http://www.thenation.com/thebeat/index.mhtml?pid=1221), [3] (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P04/NH-R.phtml)
2000 Democratic Results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | 76,681 | 52 | 13 |
| Bill Bradley | 69,933 | 48 | 9 |
| Other | 1,184 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 147,798 | 100 | 22 (of 27) |
Source: CNN
2000 Republican Results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| John McCain | 115,490 | 49 | 9 |
| George W. Bush | 72,262 | 30 | 6 |
| Steve Forbes | 30,197 | 13 | 2 |
| Alan Keyes | 15,196 | 6 | 0 |
| Gary Bauer | 1,656 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 2,001 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 236,802 | 100 | 17 |
Source: CNN
Resources
- The New Hampshire Political Library (http://www.politicallibrary.org/primary-history.htm)
- 2004 primary results (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/NH/) (CNN)
- 2000 primary results (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/NH/results.html) (CNN)
- http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/7812403.htm
- http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/09/powerlines-meyerson.php