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U.S. presidential election, 2008

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Presidential electoral votes by state
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Presidential electoral votes by state

The U.S. presidential election of 2008 is scheduled to occur on November 4, 2008. The allocation of electoral votes to each state will remain the same for this election as it was for the election in 2004, relying on the 2000 Census.

Contents

The shape of presidential battles

Recent elections have revolved around the dominant Democratic and Republican parties, although many candidates seek election to the presidency. In recent presidential elections, however, minor parties such as the Green, Libertarian, and Reform parties, as well as Ross Perot's 1992 independent candidacy, have occasionally had a significant impact on both the tone of the campaigns and sometimes the outcome of the election. Modern third parties allow a broad choice to voters who are not satisified that their views are represented by either of the major parties. They raise the potential of affecting the outcome in close races by pulling votes away from one major party that might have gone to it if the ballot didn't include those alternatives and thereby potentially leading to victory for the other major party less affected by appeal of a particular third party to its voter base. Some political observers believe that in the 2000 race the extremely close vote total balance between Republicans and Democrats in Florida was affected by the votes that went instead to other parties and that the outcome might have been different if they were not on the ballot.

In 2008, President Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the US Constitution. In the last three eight-year administrations, the incumbent vice president has gone on to run for president at the end of the eight years: Dwight D. Eisenhower's vice president Richard Nixon in the 1960 election, Ronald Reagan's vice president George H. W. Bush in the 1988 election and Bill Clinton's vice president Al Gore in the 2000 election.

However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President. In 2008 he will be 67 years old. In 2004, while appearing on Fox News Sunday, he said "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say ... 'If nominated, I will not run,' 'If elected, I will not serve,' or not only no, but 'Hell no,' I've got my plans laid out. I'm going to serve this president for the next four years, and then I'm out of here." Nonetheless, Bob Woodward raised eyebrows in 2005 by stating that Cheney was a "serious darkhorse" candidate for the GOP nomination 2008 [1] (http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ep/20050519/en_bpiep/helenthomasproposesplatformforcheney08). Assuming that George W. Bush, who was re-elected in 2004, remains in office through 2008, then the 2008 race will be a non-incumbent or open seat election; that is, one in which a sitting president is not a candidate. Furthermore, the 2008 race will be the first time since 1952 and only the second time since 1928 that neither the sitting president nor the sitting vice-president is a candidate for president if Cheney does not run.

Timeline

Early fundraising and primaries

Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Republican, Socialist and other parties have begun making their plans known as early as 2005, and candidates will emerge during 2006 and 2007 because of the long lead time for fund-raising. Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, and in the past the media has anointed "front-runners" on the basis of reported fund-raising totals. For example, this occurred with Howard Dean in the 2004 electoral cycle, although he was initially considered a long-shot.

Beginning in January 2008, the first primary contests will be held in Iowa (caucus) and New Hampshire (primary) and perhaps other states to select delegates to the party conventions. The primaries continue through June, but in previous cycles, including 2004, the candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries.

Later events

Politicians pursuing a 2008 candidacy

While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to late in the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), some potential candidates may have expressed their interest in running, and are listed below. At this early stage, many of the strongest candidates have yet to emerge, and these lists include few of the political figures who excite speculation amongst political activists, insiders, and media commentators.

Democrats

Declared Candidates

Possible Candidates

  • Evan Bayh, U.S. senator from Indiana. In February 2005, Bayh renamed his PAC the "All America PAC" and hired a new veteran staff with experience on John Kerry, Tom Daschle and Wesley Clark's 2004 presidential campaigns.[2] (http://www.indystar.com/articles/8/225887-7998-010.html) His new staff includes New Hampshire political operative Steve Bouchard and longtime Democratic fundraiser Nancy Jacobson.
  • Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York and former First Lady of the United States. While frequently asked by media interviewers about her plans for 2008, she has consistently denied that she will run for president. In spite of this, polling organizations generally include her on polls involving likely candidates. She has delivered several speeches, including one on abortion, which analysts say are intended to reach out to moderates. She has also been holding fundraising meetings, including meeting with women from Massachusetts, a key constituency of potential rival and 2004 nominee John Kerry.(a) However, these activities are consistent with the lead up to a campaign for re-election to her Senate seat in 2006. Many Republicans appear to desire Hillary Clinton's candidacy for President, presumably believing her to be a polarizing figure and thus easy to defeat. The popular parody newspaper The Onion ran a headline mocking this attitude, asking "Could Hillary Clinton Have What It Takes To Defeat The Democrats In 2008?"
  • John Edwards, former U.S. senator from North Carolina and 2004 Democratic vice presidential candidate. Edwards has kept his political action committee, One America, to fund his travel and appearances across the nation.[3] (http://www.oneamericacommittee.com/home.asp) On February 5, 2005, Edwards spoke at the New Hampshire Democratic Party's fundraising dinner. Officially, Edwards refuses to say whether he will run in 2008. [4] (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A1494-2005Feb5.html)
  • Russ Feingold, U.S. senator from Wisconsin, announced to a meeting of the Tiger Bay Club of Volusia County, Florida, in January 2005 that he was considering a run for the nomination, and would decide after "going around the country" to campaign for fellow Democrats running for other offices [5] (http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/News/WestVolusia/03WVolWEST08POL012905.htm). On January 21, 2005, he filed papers with the Federal Election Commission to form the Progressive Patriots PAC, soon to be renamed the Progressive Patriots Fund, a "leadership committee," which will be financing his travels around the country [6] (http://www.wisinfo.com/postcrescent/news/archive/local_19775337.shtml). In early March 2005, his Senate campaign registered the domain name for the Web site www.russfeingold08.com as well as the .org and .net versions [7] (http://www.madison.com/wsj/home/features/index.php?ntid=32422&ntpid=1). In early April of 2005, Feingold announced that he would be divorcing his second wife (http://www.madison.com/wsj/home/local/index.php?ntid=35750&ntpid=3), a move which some analysts believe could diminish his chances of winning the presidential nomination.
  • Al Gore, former U.S. Vice President from Tennessee, and the 2000 Democratic nominee who won the popular vote over George W. Bush. In early 2005, reports, including that from Chris Matthews [8] (http://s8.invisionfree.com/Al_Gore_Support/index.php?showtopic=1980&view=findpost&p=6811251) and CBS News [9] (http://s8.invisionfree.com/Al_Gore_Support/index.php?showtopic=1901&view=findpost&p=6640243), said that Gore was considering a run in 2008. Gore has said several times that he doesn't "intend" to be a candidate again, but can't rule it out. He added more fuel to the fire in late April when he joined the heated debate over the Republican's threats to dismantle the filibuster rule in the Senate. Gore gave an hour long speech lambasting the GOP on that issue while hitting hot topics such as religion, the Tom Delay scandal, Iraq, and Social Security [10] (http://s8.invisionfree.com/Al_Gore_Support/index.php?showtopic=2474&view=findpost&p=7932723)Al Gore 2008 Unofficial Website (http://algore2008.net/).
  • John Kerry, U.S. senator from Massachusetts, and defeated in the 2004 Presidential Election. On March 1, 2005, Kerry created a new PAC, Keeping America's Promise, which he plans to use to maintain national visibility and political viability. [11] (http://news.bostonherald.com/politics/view.bg?articleid=71976) Dan Payne, a Democratic strategist, told the Washington Post that "This is the kind of thing he has to do" in order to run for president in 2008 [12] (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61861-2005Mar1.html). Kerry told CNN, with respect to a run in 2008, "it's crazy to be thinking about it now" but went on to say that "I'll make my judgment when the time comes and I don't care what history says." [13] (http://www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/03/16/john.kerry/index.html)Unofficial 2008 Website (http://www.johnkerryforamerica.com/home.htm)
  • Bill Richardson, governor of New Mexico, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Secretary of Energy and U.S. representative. In February 2005, the Associated Press reported that he has informed party leaders that he intends to run[14] (http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/10236.html).
  • Mark Warner, Governor of Virginia, has not stated whether he intends to run in 2008 or not. According to The Washington Post, [15] (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/10/AR2005061000841.html?sub=AR) he has started taking steps towards a presidential run by forming a federal political action committee and hiring a former top aide to Vice President Al Gore to advise him on national politics. There is also a strong Draft Mark Warner for President (http://draftmarkwarner.com/) movement, and DemStore.com (http://www.demstore.com) has already started printing Draft Warner campaign pins and bumper stickers. Warner is a centrist-moderate Democrat, and uses his cover as the Chairman of the National Governor's Association to make trips to early primary states nationwide.

(a) This was backed up by an AP wire story at http://politicalwire.com/archives/2005/03/25/barbara_bush_says_hillary_clinton_will_lose_in_2008.html, but this link is no longer active.

Republicans

Since George W. Bush will not be able to run again, unless the 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution is overturned by another Amendment, and since Dick Cheney has said he will not run for office, a statement generally believed, this will put the burden on the Republicans to find a new candidate. It will be the first time that the incumbent party has put forth a candidate for President who is not currently President or Vice President since the U.S. presidential election of 1952. It will be the first time the Republicans have faced this situation since the U.S. presidential election of 1928.

  • George Felix Allen -- Current U.S. Senator and former governor of Virginia as of May 2nd, 2005, a survey of 75 Washington insiders conducted by National Journal's The Hotline reveals that he is considered to be the current front-runner for the GOP party nomination.
  • Sam Brownback, senior U.S. senator from Kansas. In April 2005, the Associated Press reported that Brownback, who is little known outside his home state, "is using a network of social conservatives and Christian activists to raise his profile" in such battleground states as Iowa and New Hampshire. [16] (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=548&ncid=696&e=10&u=/ap/20050402/ap_on_el_ge/brownback2008) [17] (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8017004/site/newsweek/)
  • Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and former U.S. Representative from Georgia. According to the Associated Press, "The former House speaker who led Republicans to power a decade ago said he soon will visit Iowa and New Hampshire to promote his book, try to influence public policy and keep his political options alive." The AP reported him as saying "Anything seems possible," including a White House race. [18] (http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-01-08-gingrich-white-house_x.htm?csp=34)
  • Mike Huckabee, governor of Arkansas. An Arkansas News Bureau Report[19] (http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2005/05/22/JohnBrummett/321715.html) indicates that Huckabee has told close friends that he will seek the nomination. There is at least one Draft Huckabee site online -[20] (http://mikehuckabeepresident2008.blogspot.com/).
  • John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona. Often characterized as a Republican maverick in the Senate, he is a well-known political figure in America. Despite his strong pro-life stance, his willingness to compromise on judicial nominations has drawn the ire of conservative groups, many of which have vowed to work against any McCain campaigns for the Republican nomination in 2008. In 2000 he lost the Presidential nomination to George W. Bush. [21] (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/24/AR2005052401253.html) [22] (http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/052505/mccain.html)
  • George Pataki, governor of New York. Considered something of a dead man walking as Governor, and unlikely to defeat Hillary Clinton for her Senate seat, Pataki has held meetings with his advisors and has quietly indicated that he's very interested in the Republican nomination.[23] (http://www.ny1.com/ny1/content/index.jsp?&aid=50607&search_result=1&stid=3)
  • Mike Pence, U.S. Congressman from Indiana, Chairman of the Republican Study Committee, has been mentioned in several articles [24] (http://thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/031705/gop.html) [25] (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54940-2005Mar21.html) [26] (http://acuf.org/issues/issue21/040928news.asp) lately as a rising star in the Republican party and as a presidential contender [27] (http://acuf.org/issues/issue34/050415pol.asp) for 2008. There are already at least three websites up hoping to recruit Mike Pence into the 2008 race - [28] (http://mikepence2008.blogspot.com/), [29] (http://www.tblog.com/templates/index.php?bid=ajhankin), and [30] (http://presidential2008.blogspot.com/).
  • Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts. WFXT, a Boston FOX affiliate, reports that Romney supporters have been quietly laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign. On February 21, 2005 he spoke before South Carolina Republicans; the winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to be the Republican nominee in every election since 1980. [31] (http://www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/02/22/gop.romney.ap/index.html). Romney is supported by Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr., who has been working on issue papers for Romney. [32] (http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,600136538,00.html).
  • Tom Tancredo, U.S. Congressman from Colorado and leading advocate for securing U.S. borders. The Associated Press reported Jun 12, 2005 that "he is so dissatisfied with the pace and direction of immigration reform, he is considering running for president to deal with it himself." Tancredo has visited early presidential primary states New Hampshire and Iowa to begin building popular support.

Libertarians

  • Michael Badnarik, 2004 presidential nominee. Badnarik announced his intentions to run in 2008 in November 2004.

Independents

  • Jesse Ventura, former governor of Minnesota. According to the USA Today, Ventura "speaks like a man preparing to be a candidate" and will make a decision in 2005 in order to have time to obtain ballot access should he run. [33] (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2004-04-15-ventura-white-house_x.htm) He says that as with his tenure as governor, if elected President he would govern from his family home in Minnesota rather than move to Washington.

Opinion polling

General election

Poll Source Date Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports Poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/McCain%20Giuliani%20Hillary.htm) April 25-26, 2005 Hillary Clinton 38% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports Poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/McCain%20Giuliani%20Hillary.htm) April 25-26, 2005 Hillary Clinton 40% Rudy Giuliani 42%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) April 18-21, 2005 Hillary Clinton 42% John McCain 50%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) April 18-21, 2005 Hillary Clinton 46% Rudy Giuliani 47%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) April 18-21, 2005 John Kerry 41% John McCain 51%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) April 18-21, 2005 Hillary Clinton 55% Jeb Bush 38%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) April 18-21, 2005 John Kerry 46% Rudy Giuliani 48%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) April 18-21, 2005 John Edwards 43% John McCain 46%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) April 18-21, 2005 John Edwards 48% Rudy Giuliani 45%
Moore Information (R) (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) March 21-23, 2005 Hillary Clinton 38% John McCain 49%
Moore Information (R) (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) March 21-23, 2005 Hillary Clinton 41% Rudy Giuliani 47%
Democracy Corps Poll (D) (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) March 15-21, 2005 Hillary Clinton 50% Jeb Bush 47%
Quinnipiac University Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) March 2-7, 2005 Hillary Clinton 43% Rudy Giuliani 44%
Quinnipiac University Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) March 2-7, 2005 Hillary Clinton 41% John McCain 43%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 14-16, 2005 Hillary Clinton 42% John McCain 54%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 14-16, 2005 John Kerry 37% John McCain 55%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 14-16, 2005 Hillary Clinton 47% Rudy Giuliani 49%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 14-16, 2005 John Kerry 44% Rudy Giuliani 50%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 14-16, 2005 John Edwards 39% John McCain 51%
Westhill Partners/Hotline Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Jan. 25-27, 2005 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 37%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 14-16, 2005 John Edwards 43% Rudy Giuliani 49%
Westhill Partners/Hotline Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 24-27, 2005 Bill Richardson 36% Arnold Schwarzenegger 27%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 14-16, 2005 Hillary Clinton 51% Condoleezza Rice 43%
Rasmussen Reports Poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Election%202008--Kerry,%20Clinton,%20Rice.htm) Jan. 29-30, 2005 Hillary Clinton 47% Condoleezza Rice 40%
Rasmussen Reports Poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Election%202008--Kerry,%20Clinton,%20Rice.htm) Jan. 29-30, 2005 John Kerry 43% Condoleezza Rice 45%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Dec. 14-15, 2004 John Kerry 45% Jeb Bush 37%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Dec. 14-15, 2004 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 35%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Dec. 14-15, 2004 Hillary Clinton 41% George Pataki 35%
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Dec. 14-15, 2004 Hillary Clinton 40% Bill Frist 33%
Quinnipiac University Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Dec. 7-12, 2004 Hillary Clinton 43% Rudy Giuliani 45%

Democratic candidate

Poll Source Date Highlights
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) June 14-15, 2005 Hillary Clinton 44%, John Kerry 17%, John Edwards 13%, Joe Biden 6%, Wesley Clark 2%, Evan Bayh 1%, Mark Warner 1%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) April 18-21, 2005 Hillary Clinton 40%, John Kerry 18%, John Edwards 16%, Joe Biden 7%, Wesley Clark 4%, Russ Feingold 2%, Bill Richardson 1%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 14-16, 2005 Hillary Clinton 39%, John Kerry 21%, John Edwards 15%, Joe Biden 5%, Wesley Clark 4%, Russ Feingold 2%, Bill Richardson 2%, Mark Warner 1%, Evan Bayh 1%
CNN/U.S.A Today/Gallup (http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2005-02-07-poll-results.htm#2008) Feb. 10th, 2005 Hillary Clinton 40%, John Kerry 25%, John Edwards 17%, Other 6%
CNN/U.S.A Today/Gallup (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 4-6, 2005 Hillary Clinton 40%, John Kerry 25%, John Edwards 18%, Other 6%
Ipsos-Public Affairs (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Dec. 17-19, 2004 Hillary Clinton 33%, John Kerry 19%, John Edwards 15%, Wesley Clark 11%
Gallup Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Nov. 7-10, 2004 Hillary Clinton 25%, John Kerry 15%, John Edwards 7%

Republican candidate

Poll Source Date Highlights
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) June 14-15, 2005 Rudy Giuliani 29%, John McCain 26%, Newt Gingrich 9%, George Allen 3%, Bill Frist 3%, Mitt Romney 2%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) April 18-21, 2005 Rudy Giuliani 27%, John McCain 20%, Jeb Bush 10%, Newt Gingrich 8%, Bill Frist 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, George Pataki 2%, Mitt Romney 1%, Chuck Hagel 1%, Haley Barbour 1%
Marist College Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 14-16, 2005 Rudy Giuliani 25%, John McCain 21%, Condoleezza Rice 14%, Jeb Bush 7%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Bill Frist 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 1%, Mitt Romney 1%, Bill Owens 2%
CNN/U.S.A Today/Gallup (http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2005-02-07-poll-results.htm#2008) Feb. 10th, 2005 Rudy Giuliani 34%, John McCain 29%, Jeb Bush 12%, Bill Frist 6%, Other 7%
CNN/U.S.A Today/Gallup (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Feb. 4-6, 2005 Rudy Giuliani 33%, John McCain 30%, Jeb Bush 12%, Bill Frist 7%, Other 6%
Ipsos-Public Affairs (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Dec. 17-19, 2004 Rudy Giuliani 29%, John McCain 25%, Bill Frist 7%, Jeb Bush 7%
Gallup Poll (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm) Nov. 7-10, 2004 John McCain 10%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, Colin Powell 7%, Jeb Bush 3%

List of Polls (http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm)

See also

Template:Uspresidentialelections

References

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