Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
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Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (ISBN 0393057658) is a book by Michael M. Lewis released in 2003 about the general manager of the Major League Baseball team Oakland Athletics, Billy Beane, and his team's approach to running the organization. The central premise of Moneyball is that the collected wisdom of baseball insiders (including players, managers, coaches, scouts, and the front office) over the past century is subjective and often flawed. Statistics like 0-60yd times, RBIs, and batting average that are typically used to gauge players are relics of a 19th-century view of the game and the statistics that were available at the time.
Since then, real statistical analysis has shown that on base percentage and slugging percentage are better indicators of offensive success — that avoiding an out is more important than getting a hit. Every on-field play can be evaluated in terms of expected runs contributed. For example, a strike on the first pitch of an at-bat may be worth -.05 runs. This flies in the face of conventional baseball wisdom and most of the men who are paid large sums to evaluate talent.
By re-evaluating the strategies that produce wins on the field, the Oakland A's, with approximately $40 million in salary, are competitive with the New York Yankees who spend over $160 million annually on their players. Oakland is forced to find players undervalued by the market, and their system for finding value has proven itself so far.
Several Lewis themes are present: insiders vs. outsiders, the democratization of information causing a flattening of hierarchies, and the ruthless drive for efficiency that capitalism demands.
Moneyball has made such an impact in professional baseball that the term itself has entered the lexicon of baseball. Teams succeeding on low budgets are often said to be playing "Moneyball". Baseball traditionalists, in particular some scouts and media members, decry the sabermetric revolution and have disparaged Moneyball as a way to disparage statistical analysis in baseball.
See also: sabermetrics
Publication Data
- W.W. Norton & Company Inc., Copyright 2004, 2003 by Michael Lewis