Presumptive nominee
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The presumptive nominee in the politics of the United States is a candidate who has not yet received the official nomination of his or her party at the party's nominating convention, but who is an undisputed front-runner who is widely, or even unanimously, presumed to be the political party's candidate. The term is applied widely on the national level, notably in regard to the U.S. presidential nominating conventions, as well as on the statewide level.
A candidate may be considered a presumptive nominee after all his or her major competitors have dropped out and it is considered unlikely that the candidate will withdraw, be usurped, or be otherwise removed from the race. Alternatively, in presidential elections, a candidate may be deemed the presumptive nominee after having accumulated enough delegate commitments through the primary elections and caucuses to be assured of the eventual nomination at the convention.
In the U.S. presidential elections, the selection of delegates has been increasingly shifted earlier in the process to produce a presumptive nominee as early as possible, even in the presence of many strong candidates. The rise of Super Tuesday in the 1980s has led to the emergence of a presumptive nominee in both major parties by early March in all recent elections. Al Gore and George W. Bush were the presumptive nominees of their respective parties after Super Tuesday in 2000, and John Kerry was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party in 2004.
A sitting President of the United States who is running for re-election will almost invariably be the presumptive nominee from the start of the nominating process unless he or she faces a strong challenger. Recent examples include Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1996. Counter examples in recent history include President Gerald Ford, who faced a challenge from Reagan in 1976; President Jimmy Carter, challenged by Edward Kennedy in 1980, and President George Bush, challenged by Pat Buchanan in 1992.